Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 10.969870 12.578002 14.306928 16.299950 18.529880 20.943793 23.750298
2025-10-26 8.413182 10.553995 13.033840 16.102524 19.780411 24.028485 29.286883
2025-11-02 7.175269 9.539821 12.412709 16.129853 20.778361 26.363423 33.541207
2025-11-09 6.263389 8.778563 11.968611 16.262997 21.837547 28.768290 37.967264
2025-11-16 5.496635 8.074665 11.471085 16.204558 22.550646 30.675153 41.757597
2025-11-23 4.838819 7.429441 10.965734 16.054609 23.081735 32.320376 45.236676
2025-11-30 4.377697 6.998334 10.692724 16.164562 23.922165 34.363675 49.280728
2025-12-07 4.086140 6.776225 10.680480 16.614361 25.226208 37.060310 54.290405
2025-12-14 3.653723 6.293976 10.242622 16.404540 25.562341 38.412519 57.480980
2025-12-21 3.158601 5.660964 9.521509 15.711578 25.136721 38.644913 59.076950
2025-12-28 2.985035 5.525463 9.544708 16.131397 26.356340 41.259121 64.143713
2026-01-04 2.799550 5.350353 9.487340 16.413195 27.368709 43.597772 68.883974
2026-01-11 2.542873 5.033803 9.184922 16.297632 27.779716 45.088433 72.479678
2026-01-18 2.302537 4.721845 8.864417 16.127649 28.089703 46.432864 75.904547
2026-01-25 2.121636 4.497688 8.670644 16.145093 28.684397 48.216796 80.036919
2026-02-01 1.977823 4.327762 8.555407 16.281955 29.470620 50.317573 84.719308
2026-02-08 1.817990 4.110123 8.336885 16.222158 29.920131 51.894359 88.628489
2026-02-15 1.661095 3.881557 8.079169 16.072533 30.202681 53.203837 92.147869
2026-02-22 1.553444 3.741654 7.973132 16.182423 30.924411 55.238348 96.877007
2026-03-01 1.496756 3.702525 8.053513 16.632716 32.250614 58.302625 103.357713
2026-03-08 1.366726 3.492315 7.787159 16.422670 32.402101 59.419820 106.693319
2026-03-15 1.196781 3.174678 7.282878 15.729049 31.650301 58.983117 107.438990
2026-03-22 1.156100 3.146272 7.358285 16.149270 32.928358 62.029614 114.074253